Starred review from March 27, 2023
Poverty at the bottom and cutthroat elitism at the top breed disaster, according to this scintillating theory of history. Complexity scientist Turchin (Ages of Discord) deploys “cliodynamics”—the study of historical change—to survey revolutions, civil wars, and other upheavals, and assess the likelihood of such unrest in the U.S. in coming decades. His scholarship involves datasets and mathematical models, but he boils it down to a few lucid principles centered around socioeconomic “wealth pumps” that shunt resources from the working class to the rich, resulting in “popular immiseration” and discontent, along with “elite overproduction” of privileged people squabbling over a finite pie of power and status. Turchin applies this framework to many historical settings, including 14th-century France, as well as contemporary American politics, where he explores the resentments of blue-collar white men with declining incomes; the frustration of swelling numbers of college grads who can’t land jobs commensurate with their elite diplomas; and the opportunism of “counter-elite” political entrepreneurs like Donald Trump, who radicalize working-class populists from the right or degree-hoarding progressives from the left. Turchin’s elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It’s a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to.
April 15, 2023
A pioneering social scientist examines the roots of social problems and sees dark days looming. Everyone wants to know where the society in which they live is going, but answers are elusive. Turchin, an academic working in the emerging field of complexity science, believes he has found a path forward with a discipline called cliodynamics, which melds statistical analysis, social trend data, and historical comparisons to create a sophisticated model. He has written several books using cliodynamics, including Ultrasociety and Ages of Discord, and here, he aims to understand the current situation in the U.S, which he sees as sliding toward social and political disintegration. The author lays out a series of interlocking causes, such as the emergence of a class of overcredentialed people who want to join the upper class but find there is no room for them. Meanwhile, those on lower socio-economic rungs have seen a decline in their status and living standards, opening a vast gap in wealth distribution. As Turchin shows, when the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability driven by extremists is nearly inevitable. This is intriguing material, but some crucial parts of the argument fail to connect, and the assertion that the U.S. is in a period of unprecedented turmoil might not be valid. Some would argue that the period between 1962 and 1975 was just as tumultuous, for example, but the core institutions proved durable, and stability eventually returned. This is not to make light of the deepening polarization that now defines politics but simply suggest that Turchin's model may be less reliable than he asserts. Though the author explains his methodology in an appendix, questions remain. The text will be overly dense for general readers, but the author does have important things to say about power relationships and social evolution. A well-informed yet heavy, disturbing assessment of where we are now.
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